Bird and Swine Flu Survival Guide

The World Health Organisation had announced in August 2005 that they have not been successful in containing the H5N1 in Asia and that a pandemic is imminent. The Northern Hemisphere will soon be approaching their normal winter flu season from November to March. Since the H5N1 Bird Flu virus thrives in colder weather, is still rapidly evolving and will be endemic in many under- developed countries, it would not be unreasonable to expect that the H5N1 will have many opportunities to evolve into an efficient human to human transmission pandemic this year.

From the World Health Organisation convention in Geneva 2004, the conclusion was reached that the “H5N1 Bird Flu virus would not be able to be contained once the virus mutated to a form involving efficient transmission from human to human. The pandemic will have to run its course. All countries are under prepared to cope with a large scale deadly influenza outbreak that is expected from this H5N1 Bird Flu virus. There are not enough staff, hospital beds, medical supplies, antiviral drugs or vaccines to help most of the people who will be affected by this virus.” This is in developed countries. Medical help in underdeveloped countries will almost be non existent.

The most immediate impact on everyone during a pandemic is that the hospital and medical services will be quickly overwhelmed and will be unable to cope with the many seriously infected people with bird flu. The World Health Organisation has stated that this will be the situation in every country for the first wave (which may last between 3 months to a year. 2nd and 3rd waves may occur during each yearly flu season.). There will not be enough hospital beds, medical staff, antiviral drugs, or vaccines to help everyone or even the majority that are sick.

When the pandemic occurs you will most likely be told to stay at home and deal with it yourself if you or members of your family become infected. The Australian government’s contingency plans even allow for forced quarantines, even of whole towns and regions. Hospitals will not have the room or the staff to admit you. Supplies of antiviral drugs and vaccines will be very limited, non-existent or ineffective once a pandemic begins. Do YOU have enough food and medical supplies to care for your family? Do you know what to do if a member of your family becomes infected with bird flu? Do you know how to avoid being infected yourself? This is an extremely frightening situation that most people simply do not want to think about.

The Health Department of Australia has a very comprehensive contingency plan in the event of an avian influenza pandemic. However, there are still serious concerns about Australia’s ability to cope with a pandemic. Many Australian hospitals are already on the verge of being unable to cope with a normal flu season let alone a pandemic. During a pandemic many Australian hospitals will be inundated with impossible numbers of patients to accommodate. The president of the Australian Medical Society told the Courier Mail on July 30, 2005 that “Queensland hospitals did not have the capacity to cope with an (pandemic) outbreak.”

On 31 August, in a public statement, The Australian Health Minister Mr Abbott states, “ Since 1998 all Australian Governments have been preparing for a flu outbreak that might, if not prepared for, overwhelm the health system. Those preparations are far from complete.” At the time this was announced Australia was considered to be one of the most prepared countries in the world.

Unfortunately, Australia’s Contingency Plan for an Influenza Pandemic has no provision for adequately educating people on how to look after themselves during a severe pandemic when the Health Care systems are overwhelmed. Parents taking their sick child to a hospital will be sent home to care for the child themselves. All they will receive is a piece of paper instructing them on basic infection control procedures.

From page 43 of the Australian Contingency Plan. “Patients who are suspected to be infected with influenza because they are symptomatic need to be isolated from others. This will occur either in the home or a health care setting and will be for the duration of the infectious period. This is to prevent them from infecting others. Patients and their families will be given educational materials which will include advice about infection control practices that can prevent/reduce transmission between the patient and others.”

Should a child become infected this would become every parent’s worst nightmare of being unexpectedly turned away from the professional help of a trusted Health Care system and being forced to suddenly nurse their extremely sick and possibly dying child at home. Adding to this nightmare would be the feeling of helplessness and despair caused by the lack of necessary supplies, relevant knowledge, first aid experience and emotional preparation to adequately deal with this sudden horrendous situation. As a DIRECT result of being unprepared even more family members will become infected and die needlessly, further adding to the horror.

They will at least need to be given food, masks, goggles, gloves, gowns and disinfectants to avoid infection themselves. If the family is quarantined it will be impossible for them to buy this essential life saving equipment even if they were available. If there are no provisions for supplying these items to all infected families then the Australian government needs to inform and encourage the public on what to buy beforehand as is done for severe storm or bushfire preparation.

Dr David Nabarro, former head of the World Health Organisation’s crisis operations stated in an interview with Ontario News on Oct 2, 2005 that “we’re dealing here with world survival issues or the survival of the world as we know it.” He later suggests that 5 million to 150 million people could die from this potential pandemic and that “a lot of people are going to suffer a great deal who are going to live. And we need to plan about how we’re going to minimise that suffering and get those people through so they don’t die from other collateral damage related concerns. Like lack of other medications. Lack of food, water.”

The above statement was made not long after researchers discovered that the present H5N1 Bird Flu virus is similar to the severe Spanish flu virus and not the milder Asian or Hong Kong Flu pandemics.
Potential consequences from a severe pandemic may be areas of mass starvation, economic collapse of some countries, disease outbreaks caused by breakdown of social services and political upheavals causing many more deaths. Long term economic depression is very likely for most of the world and is predicted by many business organisations.

A recent survey taken by New York health care workers showed that only 48% would show up for work during a SARS outbreak. This is a good indication of what to expect during a severe H5N1 pandemic. This rate of absenteeism would also apply to essential service workers and would most likely be much higher in reality.

It would be realistic to allow for panic buying and hoarding of food and other essential supplies. This would empty supermarket shelves and create food shortages. Power blackouts may be common and may take longer to restore. Fuel supplies could be rationed. Shopping malls, work places and schools may be closed in an effect to prevent the spread of a pandemic. Law and order may also break down in some areas. If the world does experience a severe pandemic then not only will the direct effects of the pandemic be catastrophic but also the aftermath may not be much better either. If the pandemic is mild it is possible for it to be contained by government authorities. There is also a small chance that the H5N1 Bird Flu virus may evolve to a relatively harmless flu before it turns pandemic.

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